It took a long time to be able to condense it to one word, yet I am very comfortable and satisfied with the word that eventually revealed itself in that session. It speaks to me on several levels.

I’m glad you responded. It was your presentation at Social Fresh that caused me to dig this model out of the mothballs to stir the pot and start a conversation.

I will say I don’t disagree with too much of what you’ve said. I do think you are ahead of what I was attempting to articulate. I realize now that I probably should have more clearly established the intent of the post and model. So let me do this, now:

“This approach could be used in the absence of data, to create a starting point for measurement of a WOM campaign.”

You know, early in my career I managed many large direct marketing programs. I lived to *prove* the impact and ROI a program, campaign or strategy with my measures and analysis. Yet, there were some things I just did not have the data, tools, or time to prove. However, I could note trends and continue to test my theories.

Later in my career, I learned the true value of approximation (your word: “fuzzy math”) in testing new ideas in marketing. I had a boss who was prone to say, “If it’s a good idea, it’s worth doing poorly.” He encouraged me, as I encourage folks today, to come up with a way to draw a line in the sand as a point of reference and then test to it. In the absence of reliable data, tools, or time, I think the Residual Value of a Customer model might just help draw that line. In fact, when I worked as a senior marketing executive, if someone gave me the results of that model and said, “We can’t quantify this yet, but here’s what we think could happen if we launched a WOM campaign,” I would have been likely discount it by 50%, then give the go ahead to test if proper steps were taken to quantify the effort.

Many people reading this post may well have an understanding of what to measure, when and how with a WOM campaign. Others will not even know where to start. Aside from ROI, some may chose to measure things differently than what you or I would measure. Who is to say what is right or wrong? I think it depends on organizational goals and objectives.

I do agree that a customer’s influence score/value is a variable and does not stay constant over time. I also agree that with access to data, you can pinpoint actual value within a specific time frame. Yet, there are many, many, organizations that do not have, cannot access, or have the skills to analyze such data. If this happens to be*your* organization, where would you start? I think I would ball park the numbers using something like the Residual Value of a Customer model, then test it out.

As for the 90% of WOM that happens offline, how would one approximate the impact of the work online? If the executive is worth his/her salt, the question will be asked. I would probably draw a line in the sand somewhere as my starting point, and then test it out.

Yes, I really should have qualified this post and model a little better. I *should* have said, “use this to draw a line in the sand,” or “use this when you don’t know where to start but your boss wants to know the potential impact before handing you the keys to the car.” I did not, and I deserve the lumps you gave me as a result of my lack of clarity.

For the record, I don’t think the methodologies and tools are *ever* going to be sophisticated enough deliver acceptable WOM measures—there are too many variables. I think we’re always going to have to do a little “fuzzy math.” I don’t think we can be afraid of approximation when trying “new things” in marketing. If we are afraid, we will never innovate. Social media/WOM is still a relatively “new thing” to measure for most organizations. Let’s not be afraid.

Now, I have started the conversation. Olivier has chimed in. How can we as a community define some acceptable baseline measurements? More heads are definitely advantageous in this conversation.

1. The measurement of Social Media’s impact on an organization is not a question mark anymore. We know what to measure, where to measure it, and how to measure it. (And I’m not even talking about R.O.I. here, just impact.)

2. Averaging out the potential influence of an individual based on generalizations about usage statistics of specific channels = fuzzy math at best.

3. You can now pinpoint the actual influencer value of a customer during a certain timeframe. You don’t have to guess or estimate it.

4. Every customer’s influencer score or value is variable. It doesn’t stay constant over time. So in terms of measurement, it’s pretty time-consuming to focus on this when so many other (more stable) metrics could (and do) give you more valuable insight into your SM’s impact. (Unless you are bent on figuring out how WOM impacts your business.)

5. Since 90%+ of WOM happens offline, using Social Media to calculate WOM (or measuring WOM via Social Media channels) only gives you 10% of the data you are really looking for. That’s not super solid (yet).

That said, I think you’re on to something. We do need to refine WOM measurement and I think you’re on the right track: Methodologies and tools aren’t sophisticated yet in my book, and that’s a problem given the importance of WOM. Looking forward to reading more of your ideas. You aren’t there yet, but I respect the fact that you’re trying to do something with this.

Enjoyed your post.